Phone
A growing number of operating systems are jostling for the attention of phone buyers and manufacturers. The winners will determine what our phones can do, which Web sites were steered to, and which manufacturers will survive the next few years.
The battle will be on display as wireless carriers and phone makers gather next week in Barcelona, Spain, for the industrys largest trade show, Mobile World Congress. The CEO of Google Inc., suddenly a strong contender in phone software, will address the show. Also hoping to make a splash is Microsoft Corp., which is struggling to revitalize its software.
One in six U.S. adults had a smart phone last year, according to Forrester Research. That share is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years, as consumers warm to mobile devices that can run a wide range of applications and surf the Web nearly as well as computers.
Analysts dont expect smart phones to settle on one kind of operating software, like the PC industry largely has with Microsofts Windows. But analysts do expect the smart phone field to be winnowed down to two to four winners over the next few years.
These are the contenders, starting with the largest worldwide market share:
- Symbian – Nokia Corp.s use of Symbian software has taken it to the top, but its perch is precarious. Its down from 56 percent worldwide share in 2008 to 44 percent in 2009, according to research firm In-Stat. Even though its No. 1 in the world, its nearly unknown in the U.S. One problem is that Nokia and Symbian have failed to keep up with the latest trends in the U.S. market, particularly touch screens. And now the love of touch screens is spreading overseas.
“I think Nokia suffered somewhat in 2009,” says Forrester research analyst Charles Golvin. “Theyre clearly struggling to regain their mojo on the high end of the spectrum.”
To power more-capable high-end phones, Nokia is now trying a version of the Linux operating system called Maemo.
Symbian used to be developed by a company of the same name. It charged manufacturers that used the software. In 2008, Nokia decided to upend that, buying the company and setting up a foundation to give the software away for free, mimicking Googles strategy with its Android software. Giving it away can boost adoption of the software and make it more attractive to application developers, whose programs can entice more phone buyers.
- iPhone – Apples phone continues to roil the industry, and its sales more than quadrupled last year. Its features are a model for competitors, and it has by far the most support from application developers, despite complaints about the companys opaque and slow approval process.
But while Apple is likely to be one of the winners in the smart phone fight of the coming years, its reach will be limited because Apple doesnt allow any other manufacturer to use the iPhone operating system. And Apple doesnt make a wide variety of phones to choose from – just two models, with some variations in color and memory capacity. Apples narrow focus gives it excellent profit margins but also leaves plenty of room for competitors.
Apple wont be at the Barcelona show, because it prefers to put on its own events.
RIM has a nearly impenetrable hold on the market for corporate e-mail phones in North America, so analysts expect it to stay around. However, it has stumbled in trying to expand to the consumer market and in introducing touch screens.
“The BlackBerry platform looks old and tired. It needs a significant scrub and redo,” ABI Research analyst Stuart Carlaw says. “I dont think well see that in the first half of this year, but its something that should be in the cards for them later in the year. If it isnt, it needs to be.”
- Windows Mobile – Once a pioneer in smart phones, Microsoft is struggling to keep up. Manufacturers like Motorola Corp. and HTC Corp. are shifting away from Windows Mobile toward Googles Android. Last year, fewer Windows Mobile phones were sold than the year before, even in a market that grew 35 percent.
Microsoft is expected to show off a new version of its mobile software Monday in Barcelona. Analysts see that as a do-or-die attempt to stay relevant in the business.
- Android – Googles software has been on a tear, racking up a lot of support from manufacturers, and favorable reviews. There was just one Android phone out in 2008. At the end of 2009, there were more than a dozen, from Motorola, HTC and Samsung and others.